FT: МВФ спешит спасти Украину $15 млрд.

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Оригинал:

IMF rushes through $15bn Ukraine bailout

The International Monetary Fund is expected to announce a rescue package for Ukraine of about $15bn as early as Thursday in hopes that the initial aid payments could be made by the end of April, according to officials involved in the negotiations.

The programme, which will come in a traditional IMF bailout known as a “standby arrangement”, is being rushed to the fund’s board because of concerns Kiev is running out of foreign currency reserves.

Securing the IMF deal will be a significant boost for Ukraine’s government as it battles to stabilise the country’s economy, while Russian tanks mass on its borders. Foreign exchange reserves have fallen to barely two months’ import cover, and the finance ministry warned this week it expected the economy to contract by at least 3 per cent this year.

The Fund had been considering a quick infusion of $1bn through its “rapid financing instrument”, but EU and US loans intended to be disbursed alongside the quick IMF aid were not coming quickly enough, officials said.

Instead, the IMF is hoping to agree the entire bailout package with Arseniy Yatseniuk, the Ukrainian prime minister, by the end of Wednesday and announce the deal on Thursday morning.

A package of $10bn-$15bn would be less than the $15bn-$20bn that Ukraine’s finance minister Oleksandr Shlapak said the country was seeking, although other nations are expected to contribute. A Fund rescue package will also unlock significant funding from other sources that has been made conditional on reaching an IMF deal.

Officials said that IMF negotiators were still working with Mr Yatseniuk on a number of fiscal measures, including how to help households who will be hit hard by the end of subsidies to heating fuel. But they believe Kiev will come to an agreement by the end of the day.

“We have been about to finalise [the agreement] for a few days,” said one person involved in the discussions. “They will be sorted out, hopefully today.”

“Ukraine needs the money and the west is eager to demonstrate support,” said Mujtaba Rahman, head of European analysis at the Eurasia Group risk consultancy. “All parties have an incentive to finalise and disburse quickly rather than wait until after May’s presidential elections.”

Negotiators are hoping to announce bilateral loans alongside the IMF funding. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe this week announced his government would pitch in Y150bn, or about $1.5bn, and the EU is attempting to get final agreement for another €1.6bn.

The US assistance, in the form of $1bn in loan guarantees, has been held up in Congress for days as Democrats and Republicans spar over whether the aid bill should include passage of the funding for the IMF.

Speaking before his final meeting with the IMF mission, Mr Yatseniuk said he expected the EU’s €1.6bn in aid to delivered first, within two months of the IMF agreement being signed.

The IMF has long attached two main conditions to any further financial support, which the previous government of president Viktor Yanukovich had not been prepared to accept.

One was greater exchange rate flexibility – code for a devaluation of the national currency, the hryvnia, long pegged at an artificially high rate to the dollar. The other was raising heavily-subsidised natural gas prices to households, which are a significant drain on the state budget.

But with the central bank having allowed the hryvnia to decline by nearly 35 per cent gainst the dollar this year, the first condition has been largely fulfilled. Ukraine also announced on Wednesday that household gas prices would rise by 50 per cent from May 1.

Though raising gas prices is politically unpopular, analysts say some of the extra revenues generated can be used for targeted subsidies to help the poorest consumers – rather than effectively having across-the-board subsidies as previously.

“At least it will be the end of the heating season, so less politically disruptive – and many Ukrainians would argue that this is a price to pay for freedom” from dependence on Russia, said Tim Ash, emerging markets strategist at Standard Bank.

FT

перевод выделенного красным:

Валютные резервы (Украины) снизились настолько, что едва покрывают импорт за два месяца, и на этой неделе министерство финансов предупредило, что ожидает, что экономика сократится по меньшей мере на 3 процента в этом году.

Помощь США, $ 1 млрд в виде кредитных гарантий...

МВФ уже давно выдвигает два основных условия для любой дальнейшей финансовой поддержки, которые предыдущее правительство президента Виктора Януковича не было готово принять.
Одно из них это увеличение гибкости обменного курса - девальвация национальной валюты, гривны, курс которой к доллару долгий период был искусственно завышен. Другое условие - повышение цен на природный газ для населения, за счет отмены субсидий, которые являются значительным оттоком средств государственного бюджета.